Wednesday, February 28, 2018

Cryptocurrency and the U.S. Economy


2017 was a trend-setting year for cryptocurrencies, as hundreds of billions of dollars flowed into the digital asset class. Amid the euphoria, market participants are struggling to reach a consensus about how these new assets will impact the financial system and overall economy.
The cryptocurrency market cap grew by an astonishing 3,330% last year, with dozens of individual coins reaching a valuation of $1 billion or more. The market peaked above $830 billion in January before a month-long correction shaved two-thirds off the total value.
Though highly volatile, cryptocurrencies have had a lasting impact on observers and participants of the market. The growth of bitcoin was too much for the likes of CME Group and CBOE to ignore. The exchanges successfully launched bitcoin futures contracts in December to the dismay of the Futures Industry Association (FIA), which criticized the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for not allowing ‘public transparency and input’ on the new derivatives products.
Multiple fund managers have also submitted formal applications to list bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) but later rescinded them amid regulatory scrutiny. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has taken a tougher stance on crypto-backed funds, citing liquidity and valuation concerns. Last year, the securities regulator rejected two bitcoin ETFs, including one proposed by bitcoin billionaires Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss. The Winklevoss fund has been in the works since 2014.

Although bitcoin ETFs continue to elude the market, thematic funds with exposure to blockchain companies are slowly gaining traction. Just in January, four blockchain-based ETFs entered the market, giving investors a new way to access the crypto revolution. These ETFs include Amplify Transformation Data Sharing ETF (BLOK), Reality Shares Nasdaq NexGen Economy ETF (BLCN), Innovation Shares NextGen Protocol ETF (KOIN), and First Trust Indxx Innovative Transaction & Process ETF (LEGR). As the blockchain economy deepens, there’s strong reason to believe that thematic funds with exposure to this new technology will continue to grow.
That being said, the regulators gave a surprisingly upbeat assessment of the cryptocurrency market at the U.S. Senate Banking Committee hearings in early February. Committee Chair Mike Crapo said that regulators might require more power to promote transparency and order in the market. Currently, cryptocurrency exchanges are regulated at the state level, which means that the CFTC does not have direct jurisdiction save for investigative powers. Meanwhile, the SEC has taken special interest in initial coin offerings (ICOs), and has been keen to remind token issuers of their obligation to follow federal securities laws.
Globally, the regulatory outlook varies substantially. With the notable exceptions of China (which banned cryptocurrencies) and Japan (which granted them the status of money), most nations are still struggling to define the digital asset class. South Korea recently took a bold step by reassuring investors that it would not ban domestic cryptocurrency exchanges but would instead seek new measures to boost market transparency.
Go over one of our previous takes on bitcoin ETFs here to learn more about them.
Use the Dividend Screener to search for ETF-specific investments. For instance, you can use a screen likethis to explore only dividend-paying ETFs and download the list in an editable spreadsheet for easy sorting and customized analysis.

Pete Najarian Sees Unusual Options Activity In Intel And AIG

On CNBC's "Fast Money Halftime Report", Pete Najarian spoke about an unusually high options activity in Intel Corporation INTC 1.24%and American International Group Inc AIG 1.53%.
Options traders were buying call options for the second day in a row inIntel, said Najarian. He thinks the stock is going to the mid-$50s.
Around 7,000 contracts of the March 60 calls in AIG were traded in the first half of the session on Wednesday. Traders paid around 50 cents for them, which sets the break even at $60.50 or 5.51 percent above the current market price.

Top 10 Stocks To Buy For 2018


Some might ask, why are you investing so prudently now? Most investors say they want to build the biggest nest egg they can to fund the best possible retirement when that time comes. Once that day arrives, then they’ll change their portfolio to focus less on growth and more on income.
The irony is, the stable stocks best suited to reliably fund a retirements are largely the same stocks you should arguably already own leading up to your retirement; consistency is crucial as you chip away at your financial goals.
To that end, here’s a run-down of retirement stocks you should probably already own even before you make working at a job a thing of the past. Separately or collectively, they provide a nice balance of growth and income, as well as a comfortable balance of risk and reward.
In most cases dividend — and dividend growth — is in the cards, yet not necessarily at the expense of capital appreciation as well. You’ll need that too, as inflation can and often does outpace marketwide dividend yields.
Retirement Stocks to Buy: AT&T (T)
Retirement Stocks to Buy: AT&T (T)
Source: Mike Mozart via Flickr
Dividend Yield: 5.3%
There’s no denying AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T) has had its struggles. Wireless telecom as well as broadband have become commodities, and cable television is no longer just available through a literal cable.
Its recent effort to acquire Time Warner Inc (NYSE:TWX) has also run into some political pitfalls. When it’s all said and done though, T stock is entrenched in the markets it needs to be entrenched in, and it’s got the size and cash-stash to but what it needs to buy to remain competitive. It’s not going anywhere.
That said, whether its revenue growth is impressive or not, nobody can deny that AT&T is one heck of a reliable dividend payer. It has been paid out every quarter like clockwork since the mid-80’s, and grown the whole time. Newcomers are going to enjoy a 5.3% yield on their investment.
Top 10 Stocks To Buy For 2018: Bank of America (BAC)
Retirement Stocks to Buy: Bank of America (BAC)
Source: Shutterstock


Dividend Yield: 1.5%
Yes, Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) was the same bank that seemed to struggle the most to shake off the impact of the subprime mortgage meltdown. It outright failed its so-called stress test in 2011, and though it passed it every year since then, 2014’s and 2015’s success were both conditional … and it’s not like BofA was asking regulators for any favors to begin with.
That struggle, however, may have been a blessing in disguise. Its tougher times appear to have made Bank of America a lean, mean banking machine, and one of the top retirement stocks for years to come.
Sure, the current dividend yield of 1.5% isn’t much to write home about, but what the company lacks in dividends it more than makes up for in growth potential. Between rising interest rates and the potential for a supercycle of economic growth, the next several years could be amazing ones for Bank of America.
Top 10 Stocks To Buy For 2018: Merck & Co (MRK)
Retirement Stocks to Buy: Merck & Co (MRK)
Source: Shutterstock


Dividend Yield: 3.4%
It’s cliche to be sure, but people aren’t going to stop eating, they’re not going to stop using water, and they’re not going to stop taking their prescription pills that are (in many cases) keeping them alive. That’s good news for Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE:MRK).
There are plenty of other picks from the pharmaceutical sector which would make fine retirement stocks. From a risk/reward vantage point though, Merck arguably makes more sense. Not only is its Keytruda cancer treatment a hit — with sales doubling year-over-year last quarter — but it has got plenty in the pipeline to replace that therapy once its patent protection inspires.
Its phase-three pipeline alone is worth an estimated market value of $37 billion, with Alzheimer’s treatment MK-8931 acting as its flagship R&D item … a drug which some believe could drive sales of $5 billion per year at its peak.
Top 10 Stocks To Buy For 2018: Wal-Mart Stores (WMT)
Retirement Stocks to Buy: Wal-Mart Stores (WMT)
Source: Shutterstock


Dividend Yield: 2.2%
Credit has to be given where it’s due. While Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) gave it the ol’ college try and Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) certainly rattled its cage, Walmart Inc(NYSE:WMT) has finally figured out how to remain relevant on the modern consumer market.
One of those successes is, of course, on the e-commerce front. In its most recently-reported quarter, online sales grew 23%, and that pace has more or less become the new norm. The discounter has also learned that casting a wider net through higher-end brands like Bonobos and Moosejaw makes it easier to cross-sell to untapped markets.
In simplest terms, Walmart isn’t going to be dethroned as the world’s biggest retailer anytime soon.
Top 10 Stocks To Buy For 2018: Southern (SO)
Retirement Stocks to Buy: Southern (SO)
Source: Desiree Kane via Flickr


Dividend Yield: 5.2%
No list of retirement stocks to mull would be complete without at least one utility stock. Even when times are tough, consumers find a way of keeping the lights on.
One of the best-of-breed choices among utility stocks is Southern Co (NYSE:SO), which serves nine million customers, mostly in the southern part of the United States.
Delivering electricity isn’t a simple or a cheap business, to be fair. In fact, cost overruns and delays at a couple of new facilities helped send SO shares to new 52-week lows last week. They’re just temporary headwinds though, which Southern has shrugged off before. In the meantime, the pullback has driven the well-protected dividend yield up to 5.2%, which is better than the industry’s current average.
Top 10 Stocks To Buy For 2018: American Water Works Company (AWK)

Source: Craig Dietrich Via Flickr


Dividend Yield: 2%
For the same reason consumers can’t turn off their electricity, they can’t turn off their water no matter how unaffordable it feels. That’s good news for American Water Works Company Inc(NYSE:AWK), which operates water utility services in sixteen different states.
Calling a spade a spade, water utilities are a legalized monopoly … even more so than electric utilities or natural gas utilities are. Although all markets are theoretically open to competition, in reality the barriers to entry in the water delivery market are enormously high. That’s how water prices for consumers have steadily risen for the past ten years even though consumption has fallen.
These companies generally get whatever price increase they want, as local regulators are generally terrified to put up a fight that could prove disruptive. (Try going without clean, potable water for just one day.)
American Water Works Company shareholders aren’t complaining, of course. The stock has more than doubled over the course of the past five years, and that’s not counting the dividends it has paid along the way.
Top 10 Stocks To Buy For 2018: Intel (INTC)
Retirement Stocks to Buy: Intel (INTC)
Source: Shutterstock


Dividend Yield: 2.4%
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) for a retirement portfolio? The same Intel that makes computer parts and other highly cyclical technological components?
In a word, yes.
It’s not quite as aggressive as it sounds, particularly when bearing in mind that you’ll want some stable growth during your retirement years. Intel is positioning to provide just that, venturing out to a more diversified product base than computer processors that drove it to prominence in the 90’s. Graphics processors, self-driving cars and networking solutions are a growing part of the revenue mix, and the organization is finally thinking more in terms of solutions than products.
There’s also the not-so-minor dividend, which Intel just raised another 10% for this year. Its trailing yield is 2.4%, and it has paid — and increased — quite reliably for more than a couple of decades.
Top 10 Stocks To Buy For 2018: Visa (V)
Retirement Stocks to Buy: Visa (V)
Source: Shutterstock


Dividend Yield: 0.6%
While blockchain may be the future of money, the world’s still going to need middlemen to make it easy for consumers and business to use. In the meantime, the world needs a means of facilitating commerce the old-fashioned way. That’s credit card icon Visa Inc (NYSE:V), which not only has the most market share in the business, but through 2016 was widening its lead.
The company isn’t resting on its laurels though, well aware that times are always changing. It recently decided actual signatures would no longer be required to make purchases with cards that have a chip in them, and it’s currently testing a user-authentication platform that requires a fingerprint … the first of its kind for the industry.
Top 10 Stocks To Buy For 2018: Realty Income (O)
Retirement Stocks to Buy: Realty Income (O)
Source: Llima Orosa via Flickr
Dividend Yield: 5%
In the same sense that income-oriented utility stocks make for solid retirement investments, no list of retirement stocks to mull is complete without at least one real estate investment trust (or REIT), which are explicitly designed as tax-efficient ways to deliver rental income to shareholders. And one of the top names in the game is Realty Income Corp (NYSE:O), which owns shopping centers, renting out spaces to retailers.
It seems like a rough business to be in these days, with the so-called “retail apocalypse” upon us, with even the biggest names in the business seeming to close a few more stores than they’ve closed in the past. That worry is a big part of the reason O shares have fallen 22% since their mid-2016 peak.
As it turns out though, Realty Income is handling the headwind better than one might expect. Sales and earnings were up in 2017, and they’re projected to grow again in 2018. The dividend is along for the ride; the REIT boasts 81 consecutive increases in its quarterly payout.
Top 10 Stocks To Buy For 2018: Boeing (BA)


Retirement Stocks to Buy: Boeing (BA)
Source: Phillip Capper via Flickr
Dividend Yield: 1.8%
Last but not least, add aircraft maker Boeing Co (NYSE:BA) to your list of retirement stocks to own before and after you retire.
If you think passenger jets and military aircraft are cyclical, you’re 100% right. Those cycles aren’t exactly aligned with broad economic cycles though, so at the very least a stake in Boeing is a counter-cyclical position.
More than that though, any down-cycle headwind Boeing may face in the future is likely just a mini down-cycle within a much bigger bullish super-cycle. Boeing believes the global industry is going to take delivery of 41,000 new airplanes over the course of the coming 20 years just to keep up with growing demand for air travel. For perspective, there are only about 23,500 commercial aircraft in use now.
It’s the kind of trade that requires a very long-term mindset, but retirement can last a long, long time. So can the time needed to build that nest egg.

How a top actor went from action movies to baking cookies


Nicholas Tse, who made his name starring in action films and singing Chinese pop songs, has become a pastry chef.
"I started cooking seven years ago after I saw a TV show about pastries," Tse told CNNMoney. "It said making a soufflé or a profiterole was the most challenging kitchen task to master. It immediately inspired me to try making them."
That initial experiment led the Hong Kong actor and singer-songwriter to teach himself to cook. And his efforts took him into business.
In 2015, he opened his own bakery, Chef Nic's Cookies. Located in downtown Hong Kong, its eponymous baked treats come in four flavors that Tse says symbolize the "different aspects" of life in Chinese philosophy: sweet, sour, bitter and spicy. A box of 16 sells for $23.
Becoming a TV chef

Besides being a co-owner and director of the bakery, Tse has found other ways to combine his fame with his passion for pastry.
In 2014, he launched a TV show called "Chef Nic" that documents his culinary travels with famous friends such as actors Jackie Chan and Fan Bingbing. Now in its fourth season, the show is hugely popular in mainland China and has led to other projects.
Last year, Tse starred in "Chef Nic's World Food Map," in which he reviews restaurants around the world. In March, he launches "Celebrity Chef: East vs West," which sees Tse and Canadian chef David Rocco compete to recreate the most authentic versions of local dishes across Asia.
He's also brought his enthusiasm for food to the big screen, starring in last year's "Cook Up a Storm," a movie about two chefs who face off in a TV cooking show.
Tse's growing reputation as a celebrity foodie helps bring attention to his bakery business. As well as the permanent store, Chef Nic's Cookies has expanded with a series of pop-ups around Hong Kong. In February, the cookies became permanently available at Hong Kong International Airport.
A big moment of recognition came late last year, when Tse was invited to join six chefs from Michelin-starred restaurants to prepare a gala dinner at the Grand Hyatt hotel in Macau.
Dressed in a military-inspired outfit, Tse plated up his "rose blossom" dessert on stage in a flamboyant performance. He says he arrived four days prior to the event to prepare.
Cooking with "six chefs with 14 Michelin stars between them, including Alain Ducasse, and serving up their dishes to 500 guests in a ballroom was quite an experience," Tse said.
Bringing the family closer


For the 37-year-old father of two, becoming a chef hasn't just been a career change, it has facilitated an important shift in his personal life.
Tse was born into a showbiz family. His father is legendary Hong Kong actor and director Patrick Tse Yin, while his mother, Deborah Lee, also worked as a TV actress.
He says he was previously "on bad terms" with his family, but cooking offered a way for him to talk to his parents and sister.
"Now every time I cook, they come to my house," he said. "We sit at the table, and that is just the best platform to open up: 'Hey, dad, you want to try this?'"

M&A? The Party's Not Over Yet


The £22.1bn bid by US cable operator Comcast bid for Sky has a end of an era feeling to it. Maybe it’s the memory of the last big round of media company mergers (Worldcom, anyone?) or maybe it’s Warren Buffett’s recent condemnation of a ‘purchasing frenzy’ of M&A activity. Perhaps it’s just the end of the era of cheap debt. Could markets be about to lose this all-important support?
In his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Buffett said that corporate buyers had become less and less price sensitive, with the result that pretty ordinary businesses were now selling at top drawer valuations. He put the blame squarely at cheap debt and macho CEOs, whom shareholders were encouraging to do deals. As he said: “it's a bit like telling your ripening teenager to be sure to have a normal sex life."
Merger and acquisition activity has been buoyant, exceeding $3 trillion for the fourth consecutive year (source: Thomson Reuters). 2017 finished with three mega-deals - CVS Health’s $69bn bid for healthcare insurer Aetna, the sale of global shopping centre business Westfield to France’s Unibail-Rodamco for $24.7bn and Rupert Murdoch’s decision to sell a chunk of 21st Century Fox to Disney for $66bn.


Rampant merger and acquisition activity has often characterised the end of a bull market. Russ Mould of AJ Bell recently noted that January was the best month for global merger and acquisition activity worldwide since 2000. These mega mergers tend to suggest companies flush with cash, who are less discerning about where they allocate capital.
At the same time, we are seeing a shift in the economic climate, and a likely tightening in monetary policy conditions across the globe. If corporate borrowing rates go up, then investors could expect some pull-back. It is difficult to know the extent to which M&A has supported markets, but it may have provided a floor for recent falls.
However, investment bankers don’t appear to be concerned. Marc Nachmann, co-head of global investment banking at Goldman Sachs, told the Financial Times that “the momentum around large deal activity would continue into next year as we see a number of industries undergoing massive strategic shifts and further consolidation.”
This is key. Merger and acquisitions are a key way for companies to defend themselves against disruption. CVS Health’s bid for healthcare insurer Aetna was fuelled by the prospect of Amazon’s entry into the pharmacy business. The Sky/Disney/Comcast deals reflect profound changes in the media and broadcasting industries in recent years. For many companies, making deals is the only way to hold back the predatory influence of Big Tech.
Then there is US tax reform, which is likely to see more corporates with more cash. The structure of the tax reform encourages US companies to repatriate large cash balances held offshore. Not all of this will go on M&A activity, but some almost certainly will. A recent report by consultancy BCG  said: “Increased corporate earnings power and quality, as well as liquidity, will create a more stimulative investment and M&A environment.” Plus “Higher earnings power will make year-end 2017 valuations look less lofty.”
However, this won’t be confined to the US. Thomsen Reuters reports more deals in Asia. Activity in the Asia-Pacific region has climbed 11% over the past year to hit $911.6bn.
While it all feels a little toppy and ‘end of cycle’, there is plenty to suggest that the M&A bonanza can continue for some time. It doesn’t mean that companies are necessarily making the best decisions, but many continue to see deal-making as the best defence against disruption.

Gold prices to trade lower today: Angel Commodities


According to Angel Commodities, on Tuesday , spot gold prices plunged 1 percent to close at $1318 .1 per ounce as dollar gained momentum after New Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell said in prepared remarks to the U .S. Congress that rate hikes should continue despite the added stimulus of tax cuts and government spending.



Angel Commodities' report on Gold
On  Tuesday , spot gold prices  plunged 1 percent to close at $1318 .1 per ounce as  dollar gained  momentum after  New Federal Reserve  chief Jerome Powell said in prepared remarks to the U .S. Congress  that rate hikes should continue despite the added stimulus of tax cuts  and government spending. Earlier this week, gold was supported by  a softer U.S. dollar helped  the metal rebound from its biggest weekly loss this year,  but moves  were muted before the debut congressional testimony by U.S. Federal  Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later this week. The heads of the European Central Bank and Bank of England are also set to give speeches this week. On the MCX, gold prices fell 0.7 percent to close at Rs. 30438 per 10 gms.
Outlook
We expect gold prices to trade lower today as hawkish comments by the incoming Fed head will be supportive for dollar. On the MCX, gold prices are expected to trade lower today; international markets are trading marginally lower at $ 1317.2 per ounce.